Gas prices drop after Israel-Hamas ceasefire - what it means for UK businesses
November 2025
Updated on 1 November 2025 by:
Jordan Kleiner, Head of Risk Management
Wholesale gas prices have followed a downward trend over the last quarter. Gas prices have also declined by 6%1 for the next two seasons contracts, while electricity prices have remained broadly at the same level as the previous quarter (+/- 1%)2. This has been in response to improving geo-political conditions in the Middle East, particularly following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, creating both opportunities and risks in the evolving UK energy market.
UK wholesale gas prices (left) and UK wholesale electricity prices (right)
Source (left) - ICE UK NBP Natural Gas Futures, 23 October 2025
Source (right) - ICE UK Baseload Power Futures, 23 October 2025
What this means for UK businesses
These wholesale gas price decreases have, however, failed to encourage injections into gas storage facilities to the levels seen in previous years, following the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia. Gas storages across Europe are 12% below the levels seen last year3. This, all else equal, could lead to greater price-weather sensitivity this winter: if it’s colder than typical across the UK and Europe we should expect gas prices to rise more than typical, and if it’s warmer we should expect gas prices to decrease more.
European storage levels
Source - Daily Stock Levels (GSE), Refinitiv, 23 October 2025
Fix your energy costs this winter
Gas prices are down, but storage shortfalls mean heightened risk this winter. Energy costs could swing sharply with the weather - now might be the time to review your energy strategy and consider your options.
If you want price certainty, ahead of a very uncertain winter, you can choose to lock in your unit rates for any contract length up to 5 years and enjoy peace of mind, knowing your commodity prices won't change, no matter what happens in the market.
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Sources
Daily Stock Levels (GSE), Refinitiv, 23 October 2025
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