Market Insight Report Q3 Wholesale Energy Market
October 2024
Gas storages were well stocked but escalations in the Middle East increased prices.
Wholesale energy markets over the Q3 2024 rose in the middle of the quarter. The increase in prices could have been because of media headlines. The price increase could have also been due to the planned summer maintenance of Europe's gas and power supply. Then, in late summer, prices eased following less disruption to Northwest Europe’s gas and power supply than expected.
The escalating Middle East conflicts drove up energy market prices. Especially, the potential Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. This reversed much of the energy market price decreases in late summer.
Over the quarter we saw more seasonal volatility in gas than power.
- Gas and power prices respectively rose by 18% 1 and 8% 2 up to their peak in mid-August
- They both then fell by 23% 1 13% 2
- Finally, they increased by 16% 1 and 9% 2 at the end of the quarter
Weather effects on European storages
Despite a chillier September than normal, European storages were 4% more full than the previous 3 year average 3. This was helped by a warm Q1 2024 and few outages over the summer.
European gas storages 2024
Conflict in the Middle East concerned European energy markets
Iran is the third largest natural gas producer in the world 4. The conflict between Israel, Iran and their proxies 5 escalated in September. The chance of an Israeli attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure increased prices because it could affect European supply. In the next quarter, if there was a reduction in global supply, we would expect European gas and power prices to increase.
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Additional information
ICE UK Baseload Power Futures. Accessed on 13th October 2024
Daily Stock Levels (GSE), Refinitiv. Accessed on 13th October 2024
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